Risk Strategy

Comment

Gold rallies on bond-yields collapse, Brexit

Rising event risk

Commodities continued their strong ascent with broad-based gains across most sectors with the exception of industrial metals. Towards the end of another strong week, however, some profit taking…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Risk Analysis

Crude oil now at risk of deeper correction

The commodity sector was trading close to unchanged for a second week. Weakness in energy and especially precious metals was offset by gains across the agriculture and industrial metal sectors. …

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

2016 FM Global Resilience Index

Lower Oil Prices and Threat of Terrorism Impacting Global Supply Chain Resilience

Supply chain resilience is vital to robust business performance. Threats to resilience—such as depressed oil prices, natural catastrophes and the spread of terrorism—are keeping financial…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Study

Redefining business success in a changing world

CEO's concerns about geopolitics

Two-thirds of CEOs (66%) see more threats facing their businesses today than three years ago.  Just over a quarter (27%) believe global growth will improve over the next 12 months, a decline of…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Risk Analysis

From bad to worse as Iran crushes crude

The energy sector suffered its worst weekly setback since June 2011 as the imminent return of Iranian crude and milder weather in the US sent oil and natural gas sharply lower. These…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

Global Risk Map 2016

Geo-political instability causing disruption

The risk landscape for businesses is substantially changing in 2016. While businesses are less concerned about the impact of traditional industrial risks such as natural catastrophes or fire,…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]

Artificial intelligence

How to Train an AI to Predict Risk

When it comes to predictions, artificial intelligence techniques are much more powerful than simple statistical approaches such as extrapolating simple trends. However, these methods initially only…

Study

Business interruption on the rise

Modern supply chains vulnerable to disruption

Collapsed buildings, damaged factories or destroyed shipping containers: Whenever natural catastrophes or man-made disasters strike the physical damage is often devastating for companies.…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes

It Really Is Different This Time

Now that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, investors want to know how this rate-hiking cycle might proceed and, more important, how markets will…

Erik Weisman [MFS]
News

Review of natural catastrophes

ENSO oscillation and weather extremes

The review on the natural catastrophes for the first half of 2015 was characterised by the earthquake in Nepal and by the heatwave that affected India and Pakistan. Some 12,000 people fell victim…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Market Risk Analysis

No Greater Fool

Throughout history, the "greater fool" trade has coincided with market peaks. During these periods, investors have continued to pour money into overvalued securities with little to no chance of…

Erik Weisman / Sean Cameron
Comment

Continual data management strategy

Lost in the Data Jungle

Today’s working environment is increasingly dominated by the use of mobile and social media, raising important implications for corporate data management. Mobile media is firmly integrated into…

Comment

Commodities

Conflicting data sends crude oil rangebound

Commodities had a mixed week with currencies and equities providing little guidance. In Europe the economic outlook continues to improve while the showdown with Athens carries on with most…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]

Probabilistic models give us knowledge

The Demystification of Quantification

Both the past and the present are full of examples of risk blindness, risk ignorance and downright stupidity. "The Reactor Safety Study" (WASH-1400) from the year 1975 delivers a prime example of the…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Outlook

Crude oil sees biggest rally in 17 years

Commodities made a strong comeback during the past week with the Bloomberg Commodity index returning 2.3%, the best weekly result in 18 months. Gains were seen across most sectors apart from…

Comment

From Denmark to China

Currency pegs around the world in focus

After  the  January 15 currency earthquake, when the Swiss National Bank suddenly walked away from the franc ceiling, currency pegs around the world have come into focus. In Europe, the effort…

John J. Hardy
Study

Political Risk Map 2015

Growing political risk in the year ahead and beyond

Geopolitical tensions, falling commodity prices, separatist movements, and more are shaping today’s political risk landscape. There is a clear divide between healthy emerging markets and those…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Outlook

Crude oil consolidating, gold being challenged

January proved to be another difficult month for commodities as the trend of falling prices amid rising supply (from crude and corn to iron ore and copper) resulted in a seventh consecutive…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

The world in 30 years

Robots Replacing People, Robots Serving People: Forecast for 2045

About 30 years ago the personal computer began to make its way into regular use – and it went on to transform society and the way we live our lives. Kaspersky Lab’s experts decided to mark that…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
News

Lower losses from weather extremes and earthquakes

Review of natural catastrophes in 2014

The absence of very severe catastrophes and a quiet hurricane season in the North Atlantic meant that losses from natural catastrophes in 2014 were much lower. At US$ 7bn, the most expensive…

Redaktion RiskNET

"Nightmare-Assessment" and "Reverse Thinking" in practice

What scenarios cause you sleepless nights?

Since time immemorial we have been dealing with uncertainty and risks. Power, money and fame were driving forces even in ancient times, led to wars and divided peoples. The whims of nature struck…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
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