Economy

News

The New Logic of Global Risks

Risks of the New World Order

Current account balances were long regarded as a technical outcome of the international division of labor. This view has become too narrow. China can leverage its position in industrial supply…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Frontier-AI Automates Complex Attack Chains

The "Mythos Moment"

The most powerful AI models can no longer merely explain program code or flag individual security vulnerabilities. They are increasingly capable of developing exploits, linking multiple attack…

Editorial team RiskNET
People

Harry Max Markowitz

Why Returns Without Risk Remain Elusive 

There are moments in the history of economics when an entire field of research emerges from an almost casual remark. In the case of Harry Max Markowitz, the story does not begin on the stock…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
News

BIS Annual Economic Report 2026 

Resilience Is Not Robustness

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) does not tell a simple crisis story in its Annual Economic Report 2026. The report opens with a seemingly reassuring observation: despite major tariff…

Editorial team RiskNET
People

Frank H. Knight

Risk is measurable, uncertainty is not

There are moments when a thinker’s entire worldview becomes apparent in just a few minutes. There are moments when a thinker’s entire worldview becomes apparent in just a few minutes. One such…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Bruno de Finetti

Probability Without Objectivity

In the history of probability theory, there are few statements that sound as simple and yet pack as much of a punch as this one: "Probability does not exist." You hear it and almost inevitably…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]

A Critical Assessment of the New COSO Practice Guide

From Risk Report to Decision

The COSO guide "From Guidance to Action: Exploring Practical Enterprise Risk Management" hits on a critical issue in enterprise risk management: Many systems are visibly active but have little impact…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Abraham de Moivre

Mortality Tables and the Business of Death

London, on a cold evening in the early decades of the 18th century. In a coffeehouse, amid clouds of tobacco smoke, newspapers, and the restless murmur of merchants and scholars, a gaunt man with…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
News

The Hidden Dynamics of Corporate Scandals

The Dark Pattern

In 'The Dark Pattern', Guido Palazzo and Ulrich Hoffrage examine the hidden dynamics of corporate scandals. The book does not start with the convenient explanation that scandals are primarily the…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Pierre-Simon Laplace

Measuring Uncertainty

There are certain historical scenes that seem almost too good to be true – and yet, precisely for that reason, they reveal something essential about an era. One such scene takes place in…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

The Strait of Hormuz as a test case for energy…

Vulnerability at the Chokepoint

An actual article by Farhad Khakzad argues that the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a narrow maritime route for oil shipments, but a strategic fault line where energy security, military power,…

Editorial team RiskNET
Comment

Jakob Bernoulli

Why large numbers can be misleading

A cool evening in Basel, at the end of the 17th century. In a study, Jakob Bernoulli sits hunched over columns of numbers. Before him lie records of coin tosses – hundreds, perhaps thousands of…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Commerzbank as a takeover target

Yellow, weary, vulnerable

Commerzbank is not a takeover target today because it is too strong. It is one because, despite respectable metrics, it has for too long been managed strategically below its potential. UniCredit…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]

Benoît B. Mandelbrot

Fractals, Fat Tails, and the End of Comfortable Statistics

There are those rare moments when a researcher looks at a screen and suddenly realizes that a new order lies hidden behind the apparent chaos of the world. For Benoît B. Mandelbrot, such a moment was…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
News

Snapback risks and the illusion of unlimited…

Fiscal threats in a changing global financial system

When the United Kingdom reached a debt ratio of around 100 percent of gross domestic product in the autumn of 2022 and at the same time yields on British government bonds surged within a matter…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Study

The Global Economy in a Phase of Multiple Crises

The World in Reverse

The global economy is entering a phase of heightened fragility. While a complete collapse has been avoided in recent months, momentum has clearly stalled. Coface forecasts global growth of just…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Fragile Recovery in a Polarized World

Between Geopolitical Turmoil and Fiscal Transformation

As of summer 2025, the global economy is under immense strain. While many countries strive to recover from the economic and social aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts,…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

New risk scenarios in the age of AI 

When machines learn to deceive

In early 2024, British engineering giant Arup, known globally for its involvement in the renovation of the Sydney Opera House, fell victim to a meticulously orchestrated deepfake attack. A…

Editorial team RiskNET
News

Geopolitical and economic risk analysis

External shocks and internal weaknesses 

As of spring 2025, Europe finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between internal economic fragilities and escalating global geopolitical tensions. The resurgence of US protectionism under…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Surpassed the self-replicating red line

Risks of AI Self-Replication

The study "Frontier AI systems have surpassed the self-replicating red line" published a few weeks ago reveals alarming developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors of…

Editorial team RiskNET

Frank Plumpton Ramsey

Between Wittgenstein and Probability

There are people for whom even minor episodes seem like exaggerations. For Frank Plumpton Ramsey, the story involving German philosophy is one such episode. The British linguist and writer gave the…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
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