Economy

Comment

Pierre-Simon Laplace

Measuring Uncertainty

There are certain historical scenes that seem almost too good to be true – and yet, precisely for that reason, they reveal something essential about an era. One such scene takes place in…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

The Strait of Hormuz as a test case for energy…

Vulnerability at the Chokepoint

An actual article by Farhad Khakzad argues that the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a narrow maritime route for oil shipments, but a strategic fault line where energy security, military power,…

Editorial team RiskNET
Comment

Jakob Bernoulli

Why large numbers can be misleading

A cool evening in Basel, at the end of the 17th century. In a study, Jakob Bernoulli sits hunched over columns of numbers. Before him lie records of coin tosses – hundreds, perhaps thousands of…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Commerzbank as a takeover target

Yellow, weary, vulnerable

Commerzbank is not a takeover target today because it is too strong. It is one because, despite respectable metrics, it has for too long been managed strategically below its potential. UniCredit…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
News

Snapback risks and the illusion of unlimited…

Fiscal threats in a changing global financial system

When the United Kingdom reached a debt ratio of around 100 percent of gross domestic product in the autumn of 2022 and at the same time yields on British government bonds surged within a matter…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Study

The Global Economy in a Phase of Multiple Crises

The World in Reverse

The global economy is entering a phase of heightened fragility. While a complete collapse has been avoided in recent months, momentum has clearly stalled. Coface forecasts global growth of just…

Editorial team RiskNET

Bow-tie analyses and Bayesian networks

From Risk Outline to Calculation Logic

At a manufacturing company, a key production line has been running reliably for years. It is precisely this stability that breeds complacency. Maintenance schedules are pushed back to handle order…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Study

Fragile Recovery in a Polarized World

Between Geopolitical Turmoil and Fiscal Transformation

As of summer 2025, the global economy is under immense strain. While many countries strive to recover from the economic and social aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts,…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

New risk scenarios in the age of AI 

When machines learn to deceive

In early 2024, British engineering giant Arup, known globally for its involvement in the renovation of the Sydney Opera House, fell victim to a meticulously orchestrated deepfake attack. A…

Editorial team RiskNET
News

Geopolitical and economic risk analysis

External shocks and internal weaknesses 

As of spring 2025, Europe finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between internal economic fragilities and escalating global geopolitical tensions. The resurgence of US protectionism under…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Surpassed the self-replicating red line

Risks of AI Self-Replication

The study "Frontier AI systems have surpassed the self-replicating red line" published a few weeks ago reveals alarming developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors of…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Study on "Mental Models of the Stock Market"

Investors' Misunderstanding of Market Equilibrium

An actual study on "Mental Models of the Stock Market" investigates the mental models of investors and their impact on stock return expectations. Simply put, a mental model is a representation of…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Cyber Security Trends 2023

Encryption, data exfiltration and Distributed Denial of Service attacks

Following two years of high but stable loss activity, 2023 has seen a worrying resurgence in ransomware and extortion claims as the cyber threat landscape continues to evolve, Allianz Commercial…

Editorial team RiskNET

Pascal & Fermat

The roll of the dice that changed the world

In the summer of 1654, a question posed by a gambler gave rise to a management question of remarkable enduring relevance: How does one evaluate a situation whose outcome is still uncertain, but on…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Study

Creditreform Economic Briefs 

Polycrisis drags on growth recovery

In the following you will find the key take aways from the actual Economic Briefs, published by Creditreform:

  1. We expect the euro area GDP growth to decelerate to 0.5% this year, corresponding…
Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Third-party risk management

Geopolitical challenges and ongoing inflationary concerns

Deloitte Global's 2023 third-party risk management (TPRM) survey explores the growing complexity of TPRM as dependence on third-parties continues to grow. The report offers insights into how…

Editorial team RiskNET
Comment

Artificial Intelligence

If Chat GPT becomes superintelligent ...

As the field of artificial intelligence continues to advance, it is important to consider the potential risks and consequences of these developments. One such risk is the possibility of the…

Dimitrios Geromichalos
Study

Climate change becomes the number one risk

Future Risk Report describes an overheated world

The AXA Group, a worldwide leader in insurance and asset management, today released the ninth edition of its Future Risks Report. This global survey measures and ranks the evolution of…

Editorial team RiskNET
News

Munich Security Report 2022

Turning the Tide – Unlearning Helplessness

A mounting tide of crises that reinforce each other threatens to overwhelm our societies and political systems. The Munich Security Report 2022 explores the emergence of a sense of "collective…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Risk map 2021

Covid-19 trio tops global business risks

A trio of Covid-19 related risks heads up the 10th Allianz Risk Barometer 2021, reflecting potential disruption and loss scenarios companies are facing in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.…

Editorial team RiskNET

How geopolitics and supply chains are remapping business

Country Risks 2026

A German mid-sized supplier of electric motors and power electronics is negotiating new framework agreements with a North American OEM in the autumn. The technical specifications are agreed quickly,…

Editorial team RiskNET
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