IT Risk Management and Security

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Why Risk Managers Aren't Fortune-Tellers

I Don't Have a Crystal Ball

Two thousand years ago, anyone who wanted to know whether a battle, a journey, or a political endeavor would turn out well had an astonishing array of consulting services to choose from. One…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
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Risk management in the rearview mirror

Perfect look back. Future blocked

In the early 2000s, Nokia could probably have produced an impressive analysis of the past. Sales trends, market share, production quality, supply chains, brand strength—plenty of data and likely…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
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Why risk matrices ignore tail risks

A single point is not a distribution

Decades before Fukushima, the nuclear industry had taken a fundamental methodological step: moving away from exclusively deterministic safety assessments and toward a systematic probabilistic…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Science

Cluster Analysis in Risk Management

When Risks Form Groups

300 suppliers, six risk characteristics, and a single question: Which suppliers are truly similar? Cluster analysis attempts to reveal hidden structures in multidimensional data—without…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

The dangerous tail risks

95% certain

After the 1986 Challenger disaster, physicist Richard Feynman encountered a remarkable range of estimates while working for the investigation commission. Estimates for a catastrophic failure of…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Why 99 Percent Can Be Deceptive

Bayes Instead of Gut Feelings

"Our system detects 99 percent of all attacks", announces the head of IT security. The CFO nods with relief: "So does that mean an alarm is a real attack 99 percent of the time?" Unfortunately,…

Editorial team RiskNET

The Forgotten Architects of Uncertainty

The Ancient Foundations of the Future

There are those peculiar moments in history when one realizes that an era misunderstands itself. Our present loves to portray itself as radically new. We are smarter and more innovative today than any…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Comment

Why Averages Are Reassuring—and Risks Still Hurt

Safe on Average

Imagine the production manager reporting to the board: "On average, our IT outages last only four hours." A collective sigh of relief. Four hours—you can survive that. Unfortunately, this average…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
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Where, exactly, is the elephant in the asset…

Not seeing the elephant amid all the assets

Cybersecurity can be so reassuring. After all, we’ve inventoried everything: servers, clients, applications, databases, interfaces, cloud services. Every asset has an owner, a criticality level,…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
News

Google's Gemini Is Also Penetrating Third-Party…

When AI Leaves the Test Lab

First OpenAI, then Anthropic and Meta – and now Google has acknowledged a striking incident involving one of its most powerful AI systems. During a cybersecurity test, Gemini moved beyond the…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Frontier AI Meets Finance

When Machines Attack

Frontier AI changes the cyber threat landscape not because it suddenly invents an entirely new catalogue of attack techniques, but because it changes the speed, scale and autonomy with which…

Editorial team RiskNET
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How risk communication builds or erodes trust

Why CISOs Aren't Heard

The paradox has long been visible: cybersecurity is on board agendas, budgets are rising, and regulation is making senior management personally accountable. Yet security leaders regularly report…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Frontier-AI Automates Complex Attack Chains

The "Mythos Moment"

The most powerful AI models can no longer merely explain program code or flag individual security vulnerabilities. They are increasingly capable of developing exploits, linking multiple attack…

Editorial team RiskNET

Bow-tie analyses and Bayesian networks

From Risk Outline to Calculation Logic

At a manufacturing company, a key production line has been running reliably for years. It is precisely this stability that breeds complacency. Maintenance schedules are pushed back to handle order…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Study

Ransomware, Cloud and AI

From isolated IT risk to systemic economic exposure

Cyber risk has moved from the margins of operational risk management to the centre of economic and financial stability debates. In a deeply digitalised economy, cyber incidents no longer affect…

Editorial team RiskNET
Comment

Even small amounts of poison can be enough

Any AI agent could be a sleeper agent

A new study on data poisoning in large language models suggests that even a small absolute number of manipulated documents can be enough to embed covert malfeasance in models. For companies that…

Dimitrios Geromichalos
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Moltbook as a case study and internal "watchdogs"…

Agentic AI: New capabilities – new risks

Agentic AI shifts the risk profile of AI systems: "Text can be wrong" becomes "Text can trigger actions." Once agents use tools and publicly use each other as a source of context, new attack…

Dimitrios Geromichalos
Study

New risk scenarios in the age of AI 

When machines learn to deceive

In early 2024, British engineering giant Arup, known globally for its involvement in the renovation of the Sydney Opera House, fell victim to a meticulously orchestrated deepfake attack. A…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Surpassed the self-replicating red line

Risks of AI Self-Replication

The study "Frontier AI systems have surpassed the self-replicating red line" published a few weeks ago reveals alarming developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors of…

Editorial team RiskNET
Study

Cyber Resilience and Risk Management

Rising Threats and Ransomware Concerns

The Arctic Wolf Security Report 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of cybersecurity, emphasizing the persistent threat of ransomware, the rise of business email…

Editorial team RiskNET

GPT-4 exploited 87% of vulnerabilities

LLM and their emerging role in cybersecurity

An actual study demonstrates that large language models (LLMs), particularly GPT-4, can autonomously exploit one-day vulnerabilities in real-world systems with an 87% success rate when provided with…

Editorial team RiskNET
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