Risk Management

News

Country risk

Global sector risks in precarious balance

At the end of 2016, global sector trends remained mixed, including in the regions that until now have been relatively spared by the increase in risks. Over the whole year, across 12 sectors…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Study

RiskMap 2017

A Year of Acute Uncertainty

The central theme of the RiskMap 2017 is the challenge to globalisation and free trade and how businesses can adapt and thrive in these changing times. Donald Trump’s triumph in the United States…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Risk analysis

Precious metals on defensive ahead of busy central bank week

Precious metals have been back on the defensive this past week with the shake-out in both bonds and stocks hurting the general level of the appetite for risk in the market. Next week's central…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Commodities Risk Analysis

Most commodities up but oil plays yo-yo

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the performance of 20 major commodities split evenly between energy, metals and agriculture, continues to show a gain of more than 10% in the year to…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

World economy facing "Japanese-style" growth trap

World corporate risk reaches peak levels

Since the international growth scenario announced by Coface last March, prospects have deteriorated slightly, and growth would appear to remain below 3% in 2016 for the 6th consecutive year.…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Gold rallies on bond-yields collapse, Brexit

Rising event risk

Commodities continued their strong ascent with broad-based gains across most sectors with the exception of industrial metals. Towards the end of another strong week, however, some profit taking…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]

Artificial intelligence

How to Train an AI to Predict Risk

When it comes to predictions, artificial intelligence techniques are much more powerful than simple statistical approaches such as extrapolating simple trends. However, these methods initially only…

Comment

Risk Analysis

Crude oil now at risk of deeper correction

The commodity sector was trading close to unchanged for a second week. Weakness in energy and especially precious metals was offset by gains across the agriculture and industrial metal sectors. …

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

2016 FM Global Resilience Index

Lower Oil Prices and Threat of Terrorism Impacting Global Supply Chain Resilience

Supply chain resilience is vital to robust business performance. Threats to resilience—such as depressed oil prices, natural catastrophes and the spread of terrorism—are keeping financial…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Metals surge despite flat macro outlook – oil…

Risk Analysis Commodity markets

Commodity markets had a strong week with broad-based gains seen across a sector that has been under siege for quite some time. The Bloomberg Commodity index rose 2.4% with metals – both precious…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market and Risk Analysis

Rumor & Denial: Verbal oil intervention in action

January proved to be a very volatile month for commodities and the final week was no exception, with the oil market continuing to attract most of the attention. Speculation of a so far…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

Redefining business success in a changing world

CEO's concerns about geopolitics

Two-thirds of CEOs (66%) see more threats facing their businesses today than three years ago.  Just over a quarter (27%) believe global growth will improve over the next 12 months, a decline of…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Study

Global Risk Map 2016

Geo-political instability causing disruption

The risk landscape for businesses is substantially changing in 2016. While businesses are less concerned about the impact of traditional industrial risks such as natural catastrophes or fire,…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]

Probabilistic models give us knowledge

The Demystification of Quantification

Both the past and the present are full of examples of risk blindness, risk ignorance and downright stupidity. "The Reactor Safety Study" (WASH-1400) from the year 1975 delivers a prime example of the…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
Study

Business interruption on the rise

Modern supply chains vulnerable to disruption

Collapsed buildings, damaged factories or destroyed shipping containers: Whenever natural catastrophes or man-made disasters strike the physical damage is often devastating for companies.…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Market and risk analysis

Stimulus and rate cuts a much needed lifeline for commodities

Commodities were back on the defensive for a second week running with China growth worries, a stronger dollar and high inventories of key commodities such as oil and aluminum continuing to drag…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
News

Review of natural catastrophes

ENSO oscillation and weather extremes

The review on the natural catastrophes for the first half of 2015 was characterised by the earthquake in Nepal and by the heatwave that affected India and Pakistan. Some 12,000 people fell victim…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
News

Attackers Succeed With Speed and Precision

Threat landscape 2015

In today’s hyper-connected world, it is no longer a question of if you will be attacked — but when. Symantec’s (Nasdaq: SYMC) Internet Security Threat Report (ISTR), Volume 20, exposes a tactical…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Book Review

Risk Management Reloaded

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Outlook

Crude oil sees biggest rally in 17 years

Commodities made a strong comeback during the past week with the Bloomberg Commodity index returning 2.3%, the best weekly result in 18 months. Gains were seen across most sectors apart from…

"Nightmare-Assessment" and "Reverse Thinking" in practice

What scenarios cause you sleepless nights?

Since time immemorial we have been dealing with uncertainty and risks. Power, money and fame were driving forces even in ancient times, led to wars and divided peoples. The whims of nature struck…

Frank Romeike [RiskNET]
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