Economy

Decades before Fukushima, the nuclear industry had taken a fundamental methodological step: moving away from exclusively deterministic safety assessments and toward a systematic probabilistic…

300 suppliers, six risk characteristics, and a single question: Which suppliers are truly similar? Cluster analysis attempts to reveal hidden structures in multidimensional data—without…

After the 1986 Challenger disaster, physicist Richard Feynman encountered a remarkable range of estimates while working for the investigation commission. Estimates for a catastrophic failure of…

Artificial intelligence has long been more than just a technological issue. It is transforming investment flows, productivity, labor markets, global trade, and financial markets—and thus…

In May 2026, BayWa AG, a Munich-based agricultural group, reported a "solid" liquidity position for the first quarter and an adjusted EBITDA above the targets set out in the restructuring plan.…

In the first half of 2026, Munich Re did two things that appear contradictory at first sight. In life and health reinsurance, it completed its largest-ever single longevity transaction, covering…

There are scientific partnerships that explain more than entire libraries. In the case of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, this was perhaps inherent in the nature of their partnership itself.…

There is a point at which public debt is no longer merely a large number in a fiscal table. It begins to change how financial markets respond to new deficits. That amplification mechanism is at…

The global economy entered the second half of 2026 with a stronger surface appearance than many risk managers might have expected. Growth remained positive across major regions despite…

There are anecdotes that characterize a thinker more precisely than many a ceremonial speech. In Kenneth Arrow's case, it is the story from his time as a weather officer in the U.S. Army Air…

Current account balances were long regarded as a technical outcome of the international division of labor. This view has become too narrow. China can leverage its position in industrial supply…

The most powerful AI models can no longer merely explain program code or flag individual security vulnerabilities. They are increasingly capable of developing exploits, linking multiple attack…

There are moments in the history of economics when an entire field of research emerges from an almost casual remark. In the case of Harry Max Markowitz, the story does not begin on the stock…

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) does not tell a simple crisis story in its Annual Economic Report 2026. The report opens with a seemingly reassuring observation: despite major tariff…

There are moments when a thinker’s entire worldview becomes apparent in just a few minutes. There are moments when a thinker’s entire worldview becomes apparent in just a few minutes. One such…

In the history of probability theory, there are few statements that sound as simple and yet pack as much of a punch as this one: "Probability does not exist." You hear it and almost inevitably…

London, on a cold evening in the early decades of the 18th century. In a coffeehouse, amid clouds of tobacco smoke, newspapers, and the restless murmur of merchants and scholars, a gaunt man with…

In 'The Dark Pattern', Guido Palazzo and Ulrich Hoffrage examine the hidden dynamics of corporate scandals. The book does not start with the convenient explanation that scandals are primarily the…