Comment

Comment

Metals surge despite flat macro outlook – oil…

Risk Analysis Commodity markets

Commodity markets had a strong week with broad-based gains seen across a sector that has been under siege for quite some time. The Bloomberg Commodity index rose 2.4% with metals – both precious…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market and Risk Analysis

Rumor & Denial: Verbal oil intervention in action

January proved to be a very volatile month for commodities and the final week was no exception, with the oil market continuing to attract most of the attention. Speculation of a so far…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Risk Analysis

From bad to worse as Iran crushes crude

The energy sector suffered its worst weekly setback since June 2011 as the imminent return of Iranian crude and milder weather in the US sent oil and natural gas sharply lower. These…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes

It Really Is Different This Time

Now that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, investors want to know how this rate-hiking cycle might proceed and, more important, how markets will…

Erik Weisman [MFS]
Comment

RMB Index

China has sent the Yellen Fed another strong message

On Friday, China’s central bank, the PBOC, posted a brief note on its website to indicate that it would publish a new and broad measure of the renminbi exchange rate, which it dubbed the "RMB…

John J. Hardy [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market and risk analysis

Stimulus and rate cuts a much needed lifeline for commodities

Commodities were back on the defensive for a second week running with China growth worries, a stronger dollar and high inventories of key commodities such as oil and aluminum continuing to drag…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]

Defining Trends and Ways to Prepare

Risk Management Forecast for 2024

2023 undeniably etched its place in financial services history, a year marked by accelerating change and a precarious financial climate. It brought calamity in the form of largely unforeseen bank…

Stas Melnikov [SAS]
Comment

Market and risk analysis

China must act to avert political crisis

We've long been sceptical about the Chinese economy’s potential and our below-consensus forecasts for growth reflects these doubts. Amid the chaos now erupting in China, one thing is absolutely…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market Risk Analysis

No Greater Fool

Throughout history, the "greater fool" trade has coincided with market peaks. During these periods, investors have continued to pour money into overvalued securities with little to no chance of…

Erik Weisman / Sean Cameron
Comment

Continual data management strategy

Lost in the Data Jungle

Today’s working environment is increasingly dominated by the use of mobile and social media, raising important implications for corporate data management. Mobile media is firmly integrated into…

Comment

Commodities

Conflicting data sends crude oil rangebound

Commodities had a mixed week with currencies and equities providing little guidance. In Europe the economic outlook continues to improve while the showdown with Athens carries on with most…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Bank stability

Untangling the risks of banks and governments will take more than a banking union

The European banking union raises high expectations. Its uniform prudential standards are intended to improve bank stability and boost financial market integration, and it is expected to untangle…

Claudia Buch [Deutsche Bundesbank]
Comment

Outlook

Crude oil sees biggest rally in 17 years

Commodities made a strong comeback during the past week with the Bloomberg Commodity index returning 2.3%, the best weekly result in 18 months. Gains were seen across most sectors apart from…

Perverse instantiation and reward hacking

Midas GPT: "Ethical guardian" for AI users

Tales such as that of King Midas – whose desire to turn everything into gold ultimately proved fatal – reflect a central dilemma that is becoming significantly more important in the age of advancing…

Dimitrios Geromichalos
Comment

From Denmark to China

Currency pegs around the world in focus

After  the  January 15 currency earthquake, when the Swiss National Bank suddenly walked away from the franc ceiling, currency pegs around the world have come into focus. In Europe, the effort…

John J. Hardy
Comment

Outlook 2015

Recovery with risks attached

After a surprisingly good start to 2014, the German economy cooled noticeably in the course of the year. This was mainly due to the slowing of growth in key export markets and higher…

Comment

Outlook

Crude oil consolidating, gold being challenged

January proved to be another difficult month for commodities as the trend of falling prices amid rising supply (from crude and corn to iron ore and copper) resulted in a seventh consecutive…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]

A perfect risk world - or not?

Of simple stories and big risks

People love stories and simple truths. The "halo effect" has already been extensively researched in the field of behavioural economics. In everyday business life in particular, this effect ensures…

Christian Glaser
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