Decades before Fukushima, the nuclear industry had taken a fundamental methodological step: moving away from exclusively deterministic safety assessments and toward a systematic probabilistic…

300 suppliers, six risk characteristics, and a single question: Which suppliers are truly similar? Cluster analysis attempts to reveal hidden structures in multidimensional data—without…

After the 1986 Challenger disaster, physicist Richard Feynman encountered a remarkable range of estimates while working for the investigation commission. Estimates for a catastrophic failure of…

Artificial intelligence has long been more than just a technological issue. It is transforming investment flows, productivity, labor markets, global trade, and financial markets—and thus…

"Our system detects 99 percent of all attacks", announces the head of IT security. The CFO nods with relief: "So does that mean an alarm is a real attack 99 percent of the time?" Unfortunately,…

In May 2026, BayWa AG, a Munich-based agricultural group, reported a "solid" liquidity position for the first quarter and an adjusted EBITDA above the targets set out in the restructuring plan.…

Imagine the production manager reporting to the board: "On average, our IT outages last only four hours." A collective sigh of relief. Four hours—you can survive that. Unfortunately, this average…

Cybersecurity can be so reassuring. After all, we’ve inventoried everything: servers, clients, applications, databases, interfaces, cloud services. Every asset has an owner, a criticality level,…

In the first half of 2026, Munich Re did two things that appear contradictory at first sight. In life and health reinsurance, it completed its largest-ever single longevity transaction, covering…

First OpenAI, then Anthropic and Meta – and now Google has acknowledged a striking incident involving one of its most powerful AI systems. During a cybersecurity test, Gemini moved beyond the…

Frontier AI changes the cyber threat landscape not because it suddenly invents an entirely new catalogue of attack techniques, but because it changes the speed, scale and autonomy with which…

The paradox has long been visible: cybersecurity is on board agendas, budgets are rising, and regulation is making senior management personally accountable. Yet security leaders regularly report…

There are scientific partnerships that explain more than entire libraries. In the case of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, this was perhaps inherent in the nature of their partnership itself.…

There is a point at which public debt is no longer merely a large number in a fiscal table. It begins to change how financial markets respond to new deficits. That amplification mechanism is at…

Risk management should not aim to reduce risk, but rather to enable better decisions in the face of uncertainty. This is precisely the central message of the international Coface 2026 study. This…

The global economy entered the second half of 2026 with a stronger surface appearance than many risk managers might have expected. Growth remained positive across major regions despite…

There are anecdotes that characterize a thinker more precisely than many a ceremonial speech. In Kenneth Arrow's case, it is the story from his time as a weather officer in the U.S. Army Air…

Current account balances were long regarded as a technical outcome of the international division of labor. This view has become too narrow. China can leverage its position in industrial supply…