In the history of probability theory, there are few statements that sound as simple and yet pack as much of a punch as this one: "Probability does not exist." You hear it and almost inevitably…

London, on a cold evening in the early decades of the 18th century. In a coffeehouse, amid clouds of tobacco smoke, newspapers, and the restless murmur of merchants and scholars, a gaunt man with…

In 'The Dark Pattern', Guido Palazzo and Ulrich Hoffrage examine the hidden dynamics of corporate scandals. The book does not start with the convenient explanation that scandals are primarily the…

There are certain historical scenes that seem almost too good to be true – and yet, precisely for that reason, they reveal something essential about an era. One such scene takes place in…

A new study on data poisoning in large language models suggests that even a small absolute number of manipulated documents can be enough to embed covert malfeasance in models. For companies that…

An actual article by Farhad Khakzad argues that the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a narrow maritime route for oil shipments, but a strategic fault line where energy security, military power,…

A cool evening in Basel, at the end of the 17th century. In a study, Jakob Bernoulli sits hunched over columns of numbers. Before him lie records of coin tosses – hundreds, perhaps thousands of…

Commerzbank is not a takeover target today because it is too strong. It is one because, despite respectable metrics, it has for too long been managed strategically below its potential. UniCredit…

Agentic AI shifts the risk profile of AI systems: "Text can be wrong" becomes "Text can trigger actions." Once agents use tools and publicly use each other as a source of context, new attack…

When the United Kingdom reached a debt ratio of around 100 percent of gross domestic product in the autumn of 2022 and at the same time yields on British government bonds surged within a matter…

Executives are entering 2026 in an environment where "multiple crises" and accelerated transformation are no longer exceptional – they are structural. The text argues that this persistent…

Four Brandenburg municipalities – Hoppegarten, Hohen Neuendorf, Lübben and the Falkenberg-Höhe office – are currently affected by cyberattacks. Administrative processes come to a standstill,…

With the publication of ISO 9001:2026 expected in fall 2026, a revision of the world's most important quality management standard is imminent, which at first glance appears unspectacular.…

None of them. And here's why that should terrify every risk professional. When you ask ChatGPT about risk matrices, it enthusiastically explains their "benefits." Claude confidently describes how…

In the context of the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach used by banks to estimate credit risk, the accurate quantification of the statistical uncertainty of long-run probabilities of default…

While many companies are still struggling with the bureaucracy of ESG reporting and data protection, a far more dangerous threat is growing in the background: the failure of early risk…

The global economy is entering a phase of heightened fragility. While a complete collapse has been avoided in recent months, momentum has clearly stalled. Coface forecasts global growth of just…

As of summer 2025, the global economy is under immense strain. While many countries strive to recover from the economic and social aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts,…