According to the Allianz Global Insurance report, the global insurance industry grew by an estimated 7.5% in 2023, clocking the fastest growth since 2006, the year before the GFC. In all, insurers worldwide collected EUR6.2trn in life (EUR2,620bn), p&c (EUR2,153bn) and health (EUR1,427bn) insurance premiums. Over the last three years alone, global premium income increased by a whopping EUR1.1trn or 21.5%. However, the robust development must be seen against the backdrop of high inflation. In real terms, therefore, the picture is becoming less impressive. Real premiums almost stagnated, advancing only by 0.7% since 2020.
In contrast to 2022, when the global premium increase was primarily driven by the p&c segment, growth in 2023 was more balanced. All three segments recorded rather similar increases, with life at 8.4%, p&c at 7.0% and health at 6.6%. The recovery of the life segment – which grew at only 3.1% in 2022 – is mainly driven by Asia (+14.9%), the biggest life market in the world, with a global market share of 39.0%. In p&c, North America (+7.1%) remained by far the largest market (global market share: 54.2%).
While in many other industries traditional markets are losing relevance vis-à-vis new, emerging markets, the global insurance industry is still dominated by the US. In fact, over the last decade, the US insurance market could even raise its global market share, from already impressive 41.3% to whopping 44.2%. However, other “old" markets like Western Europe (-6.7pp) and Japan (-2.8pp) developed more or less as expected, losing market share, first and foremost to China which could almost double its global share to 10.6%.
Insurability gets into the focus
As risks are rising worldwide, the limits of insurability get into the focus. Preventive measures, new technologies and smart partnerships can shift the limits of insurability but they cannot remove them. Uninsurability should be respected. The pretense of insurability – by artificially low and not risk-adequate prices – leads to excessive risk exposure and ever higher loss amounts. The trade-offs between affordability and insurability – or, more generally, between our current and sustainable lifestyles – can still be solved; but the necessary compromises won't be pain or costless. Ultimately, mastering the climate crisis is not only a question of politics and money but of individual responsibility. An uninsurable world would be not only a world that failed to cope with climate change but also a metaphor for a collective ethical failure where each individual dodges their moral obligation to reduce carbon emissions."
Closing the gap
Over the next decade, the global insurance market is expected to grow by an annual rate of 5.5%, i.e., with exact the same rate as the global GDP; in the previous decades, insurance growth trailed behind economic growth. The weights of the three segments will shift. The p&c segment will grow by 4.7% per year, after 5.0% p.a. in the previous ten years, as the inflation-related price increases will peter out. The health segment, too, is expected to grow a little slower – but at 7.3% p.a., the increase remains elevated. In contrast, the life segment might grow by 5.1% p.a. (up from 3.5% p.a.), benefitting from higher interest rates. In all, the global premium pool is set to increase by almost EUR5trn.
Most of this growth will be in the life segment (EUR1.887bn) with Asia (w/o Japan) remaining the growth engine for global life business (+7.3% p.a.). The region should account for half of absolute premium growth (EUR928bn), more than North America (EUR377bn) and Europe (EUR323bn) combined. While China (+7.7% p.a.) will still dominate the region in absolute terms, the true growth champion over the next decade is likely to be India (+13.6% p.a.).
In the p&c segment, additional premiums will amount to EUR1.427bn by 2034. Despite decisively higher growth in Asia (w/o Japan: 7.1% p.a.) than in North America (3.8% p.a.), in absolute terms, the latter region will clearly dominate: EUR584bn additional premiums in North America vs EUR376bn in Asia (w/o Japan) and EUR184bn in Western Europe.
The good premium outlook should not lead to complacency in the industry. The biggest challenge for the industry is defending its relevance against an ever more intrusive state. Increasing polarization and inequality threaten to undermine the social fabric. How to navigate these challenges, maintaining its social relevance as a force for equality and unity, is the central task of the insurance industry in the coming years.
Artificial intelligence is changing the insurance industry
Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands to disrupt industries on fundamental levels – from business model to value chain. However, few industries rely on AI's foundation – data – as profoundly as the insurance industry, making AI mastery a key competitive differentiator in the future. In the past, the insurance industry was not exactly at the forefront of productivity growth. The adoption of GenAI has the potential to leapfrog stages of cost savings and efficiency gains. AI is not a magic bullet to solve all problems. But it has significant potential to help reduce protection gaps by improving the availability, affordability, and accessibility of insurance thanks to increased personalization and improved cost-efficiency.
