Economy

Comment

Risk Landscape

Flat commodities index conceals oil surge, gold breakdown

Commodities from an index perspective were close to flat on the week. Behind this perceived calm, however, some major developments unfolded – as can be seen in the table below.

Crude oil…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market analysis

Rising risk appetite kicks commodities into gear

Commodities showed broad-based gains during a week that was driven by central bank action or perhaps (as it turned out) no action at all. The "hawkish no hike" from the Federal Open Market…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Risk analysis

Precious metals on defensive ahead of busy central bank week

Precious metals have been back on the defensive this past week with the shake-out in both bonds and stocks hurting the general level of the appetite for risk in the market. Next week's central…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Commodities Risk Analysis

Most commodities up but oil plays yo-yo

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the performance of 20 major commodities split evenly between energy, metals and agriculture, continues to show a gain of more than 10% in the year to…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Steen's Chronicle

The policymakers comical Ali strategy

I am writing this chronicle from South Africa which is almost as far away from Europe and the constant and never ending Brexit talk as you can come. It's hard even here to avoid the turbulence…

Steen Jakobsen [Saxo Bank]
Study

World economy facing "Japanese-style" growth trap

World corporate risk reaches peak levels

Since the international growth scenario announced by Coface last March, prospects have deteriorated slightly, and growth would appear to remain below 3% in 2016 for the 6th consecutive year.…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]

Whistleblowing

A billion dollar deal breaks and a whistleblower uncovers the fraud

Twitter's case against Elon Musk will begin in October. According to CNN, Twitter's former head of security, named Peiter Zatko, had given a tip about massive security breaches and fake accounts. Part…

Sarah Afshari
Comment

Gold rallies on bond-yields collapse, Brexit

Rising event risk

Commodities continued their strong ascent with broad-based gains across most sectors with the exception of industrial metals. Towards the end of another strong week, however, some profit taking…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Risk Analysis

Crude oil now at risk of deeper correction

The commodity sector was trading close to unchanged for a second week. Weakness in energy and especially precious metals was offset by gains across the agriculture and industrial metal sectors. …

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

2016 FM Global Resilience Index

Lower Oil Prices and Threat of Terrorism Impacting Global Supply Chain Resilience

Supply chain resilience is vital to robust business performance. Threats to resilience—such as depressed oil prices, natural catastrophes and the spread of terrorism—are keeping financial…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Metals surge despite flat macro outlook – oil…

Risk Analysis Commodity markets

Commodity markets had a strong week with broad-based gains seen across a sector that has been under siege for quite some time. The Bloomberg Commodity index rose 2.4% with metals – both precious…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market and Risk Analysis

Rumor & Denial: Verbal oil intervention in action

January proved to be a very volatile month for commodities and the final week was no exception, with the oil market continuing to attract most of the attention. Speculation of a so far…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

Redefining business success in a changing world

CEO's concerns about geopolitics

Two-thirds of CEOs (66%) see more threats facing their businesses today than three years ago.  Just over a quarter (27%) believe global growth will improve over the next 12 months, a decline of…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]

Interview with Emeritus Professor Dr. Günther Schmid

The liberal rule-based world order was a myth

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces began on 24 February 2022. The Russian war against Ukraine has seen post Cold War hopes for a peaceful world order disappear almost overnight. But this war of…

Editorial team RiskNET
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Risk Analysis

From bad to worse as Iran crushes crude

The energy sector suffered its worst weekly setback since June 2011 as the imminent return of Iranian crude and milder weather in the US sent oil and natural gas sharply lower. These…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Study

Global Risk Map 2016

Geo-political instability causing disruption

The risk landscape for businesses is substantially changing in 2016. While businesses are less concerned about the impact of traditional industrial risks such as natural catastrophes or fire,…

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]
Comment

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes

It Really Is Different This Time

Now that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, investors want to know how this rate-hiking cycle might proceed and, more important, how markets will…

Erik Weisman [MFS]
Comment

RMB Index

China has sent the Yellen Fed another strong message

On Friday, China’s central bank, the PBOC, posted a brief note on its website to indicate that it would publish a new and broad measure of the renminbi exchange rate, which it dubbed the "RMB…

John J. Hardy [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market and risk analysis

Stimulus and rate cuts a much needed lifeline for commodities

Commodities were back on the defensive for a second week running with China growth worries, a stronger dollar and high inventories of key commodities such as oil and aluminum continuing to drag…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]
Comment

Market and risk analysis

China must act to avert political crisis

We've long been sceptical about the Chinese economy’s potential and our below-consensus forecasts for growth reflects these doubts. Amid the chaos now erupting in China, one thing is absolutely…

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]

Environment, Social and (Corporate) Governance

Simulation methods for quantifying ESG risks

ESG risks and opportunities are highly relevant as causes and drivers for positive or negative scenarios with a significant impact on a company's reputation or intangible assets. The following article…

Editorial team RiskNET
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