Economy

Study

2016 FM Global Resilience Index

Lower Oil Prices and Threat of Terrorism Impacting Global Supply Chain Resilience

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]16.05.2016, 15:29

Supply chain resilience is vital to robust business performance. Threats to resilience—such as depressed oil prices, natural catastrophes and the spread of terrorism—are keeping financial executives...

Comment

Looking into the future

Predictive Analytics

Frank Romeike | Andreas Eicher11.05.2016, 15:25

The Oracle of Delphi, a mythical cult centre where human existence came into contact with the world of the gods, was at the centre of Ancient Greek society. Anyone with an important name or rank at...

Interview

Interview with Jürgen Stark

Risks are no longer priced correctly

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]08.04.2016, 10:14

Criticism of the ECB is in vogue – especially as the monetary perpetual motion machine in Europe has started moving increasingly quickly, and the rationale behind government bond purchases has...

Comment

Metals surge despite flat macro outlook – oil grinding highe...

Risk Analysis Commodity markets

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]07.03.2016, 19:54

Commodity markets had a strong week with broad-based gains seen across a sector that has been under siege for quite some time. The Bloomberg Commodity index rose 2.4% with metals – both precious and...

Study

Geopolitical Threats

Political Risk Map 2016

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]25.02.2016, 09:37

Attacks in 2015 have led to a renewed focus by world powers on combating terrorism. Of greatest concern is the Islamic State, which remains powerful in Iraq and Syria and is expanding its presence...

Comment

Market and Risk Analysis

Rumor & Denial: Verbal oil intervention in action

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]01.02.2016, 15:19

January proved to be a very volatile month for commodities and the final week was no exception, with the oil market continuing to attract most of the attention. Speculation of a so far unconfirmed...

Comment

In an Uncertain World, We Need Both Brains and Guts

The Art of Good Decision Making

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Gaissmaier20.01.2016, 09:39

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes," wrote the US statesman Benjamin Franklin in 1789, on the eve of the French Revolution. And his words are still...

Study

Redefining business success in a changing world

CEO's concerns about geopolitics

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]20.01.2016, 08:42

Two-thirds of CEOs (66%) see more threats facing their businesses today than three years ago.  Just over a quarter (27%) believe global growth will improve over the next 12 months, a decline of...

Comment

Risk Analysis

From bad to worse as Iran crushes crude

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]18.01.2016, 15:38

The energy sector suffered its worst weekly setback since June 2011 as the imminent return of Iranian crude and milder weather in the US sent oil and natural gas sharply lower. These developments,...

Study

Global Risk Map 2016

Geo-political instability causing disruption

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]18.01.2016, 08:45

The risk landscape for businesses is substantially changing in 2016. While businesses are less concerned about the impact of traditional industrial risks such as natural catastrophes or fire, they...

Study

Macroeconomic forecast

The recovery continues amid risks

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]13.01.2016, 09:17

The recovery in the Eurozone is expected to continue at a moderate pace. Real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 1.5% in 2015, and by 0.4% in comparison to the previous quarters in...

Comment

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes

It Really Is Different This Time

Erik Weisman [MFS]17.12.2015, 09:27

Now that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, investors want to know how this rate-hiking cycle might proceed and, more important, how markets will...

Comment

RMB Index

China has sent the Yellen Fed another strong message

John J. Hardy [Saxo Bank]15.12.2015, 16:17

On Friday, China’s central bank, the PBOC, posted a brief note on its website to indicate that it would publish a new and broad measure of the renminbi exchange rate, which it dubbed the "RMB...

Comment

Thoughts on Ethically Sound Risk Management

The Philosophy of Risk

Prof. Dr. Julian Nida-Rümelin20.11.2015, 08:30

Risk is not something that concerns only mathematicians and financiers – it is also of interest to philosophers. Whenever we start to think about things such as threats, hazards, damage, harm or...

Comment

Wall Street’s Sexiest Models

On Financial Models and Game Theory

Volker Bieta13.11.2015, 08:00

In the wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, many have voiced doubts as to whether financial models are fit for purpose. At the time the crisis struck, in the autumn of 2007, many market...

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