Economy

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Macroeconomic forecast

The recovery continues amid risks

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]13.01.2016, 09:17

The recovery in the Eurozone is expected to continue at a moderate pace. Real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 1.5% in 2015, and by 0.4% in comparison to the previous quarters in...

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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes

It Really Is Different This Time

Erik Weisman [MFS]17.12.2015, 09:27

Now that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, investors want to know how this rate-hiking cycle might proceed and, more important, how markets will...

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RMB Index

China has sent the Yellen Fed another strong message

John J. Hardy [Saxo Bank]15.12.2015, 16:17

On Friday, China’s central bank, the PBOC, posted a brief note on its website to indicate that it would publish a new and broad measure of the renminbi exchange rate, which it dubbed the "RMB...

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Thoughts on Ethically Sound Risk Management

The Philosophy of Risk

Prof. Dr. Julian Nida-Rümelin20.11.2015, 08:30

Risk is not something that concerns only mathematicians and financiers – it is also of interest to philosophers. Whenever we start to think about things such as threats, hazards, damage, harm or...

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Wall Street’s Sexiest Models

On Financial Models and Game Theory

Volker Bieta13.11.2015, 08:00

In the wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, many have voiced doubts as to whether financial models are fit for purpose. At the time the crisis struck, in the autumn of 2007, many market...

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Market and risk analysis

Stimulus and rate cuts a much needed lifeline for commodities

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]27.10.2015, 13:19

Commodities were back on the defensive for a second week running with China growth worries, a stronger dollar and high inventories of key commodities such as oil and aluminum continuing to drag on...

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The costs and benefits of lifting sanctions against Iran

A drowning man is not troubled by rain

Steen Jakobsen [Saxo Bank]03.09.2015, 18:07

The Iranian proverb "A drowning man is not troubled by rain" captures why Iran and the US were and are almost desperate to strike a deal to lift Iranian sanctions.

For Iran, the harsh...

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Market and risk analysis

Commodities quake as China rocks the world

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]19.08.2015, 10:59

China's decision to devalue its currency (CNY) helped send several commodities down to new multi-year lows this week. Being the biggest importer of many key commodities, including oil and industrial...

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China's devaluation of the yuan

A True Paradigm Shift

Steen Jakobsen [Saxo Bank]14.08.2015, 12:47

A value at risk (VaR) explosion will drive a risk-off scenario. Less transparency, lower growth, a risk of deflation, and lack of understanding add up to less positioning and the risk of breaking...

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Market and risk analysis

China must act to avert political crisis

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]09.07.2015, 14:37

We've long been sceptical about the Chinese economy’s potential and our below-consensus forecasts for growth reflects these doubts. Amid the chaos now erupting in China, one thing is absolutely clear...

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Non-linear movements in markets

Beyond the brink

Steen Jakobsen [Saxo Bank]30.06.2015, 12:32

There is exactly the same feeling into the air as before the Lehman default. I remember being almost alone in thinking Lehman would fail to remain afloat, but both the market and the Federal Reserve...

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Market Risk Analysis

No Greater Fool

Erik Weisman / Sean Cameron20.05.2015, 18:38

Throughout history, the "greater fool" trade has coincided with market peaks. During these periods, investors have continued to pour money into overvalued securities with little to no...

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Continual data management strategy

Lost in the Data Jungle

Deborah Blaxell / Martin Bonney [Epiq Systems]13.04.2015, 15:26

Today’s working environment is increasingly dominated by the use of mobile and social media, raising important implications for corporate data management. Mobile media is firmly integrated into our...

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Learning from the future

Simulation with business wargaming

Frank Romeike [Editor-in-chief RiskNET]08.04.2015, 10:15

If one takes a broad view of wargaming, it is probably one of the oldest simulation methods in existence. The Chinese game of "Wei-Hai" (meaning "encircling") is frequently cited...

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Risk culture

Balance compliance and corporate management

Christoph Schwager / Andrea Fechner09.03.2015, 16:20

In the aftermath of the recent financial market crisis, the burden of implementing regulatory requirements has been constantly increasing. From a political perspective, the key issue is establishing...

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