Geopolitical Threats

Political Risk Map 2016

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]25.02.2016, 09:37

Attacks in 2015 have led to a renewed focus by world powers on combating terrorism. Of greatest concern is the Islamic State, which remains powerful in Iraq and Syria and is expanding its presence...


Market and Risk Analysis

Rumor & Denial: Verbal oil intervention in action

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]01.02.2016, 15:19

January proved to be a very volatile month for commodities and the final week was no exception, with the oil market continuing to attract most of the attention. Speculation of a so far unconfirmed...


In an Uncertain World, We Need Both Brains and Guts

The Art of Good Decision Making

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Gaissmaier20.01.2016, 09:39

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes," wrote the US statesman Benjamin Franklin in 1789, on the eve of the French Revolution. And his words are still...


Redefining business success in a changing world

CEO's concerns about geopolitics

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]20.01.2016, 08:42

Two-thirds of CEOs (66%) see more threats facing their businesses today than three years ago.  Just over a quarter (27%) believe global growth will improve over the next 12 months, a decline of...


Risk Analysis

From bad to worse as Iran crushes crude

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]18.01.2016, 15:38

The energy sector suffered its worst weekly setback since June 2011 as the imminent return of Iranian crude and milder weather in the US sent oil and natural gas sharply lower. These developments,...


Global Risk Map 2016

Geo-political instability causing disruption

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]18.01.2016, 08:45

The risk landscape for businesses is substantially changing in 2016. While businesses are less concerned about the impact of traditional industrial risks such as natural catastrophes or fire, they...


Macroeconomic forecast

The recovery continues amid risks

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]13.01.2016, 09:17

The recovery in the Eurozone is expected to continue at a moderate pace. Real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 1.5% in 2015, and by 0.4% in comparison to the previous quarters in...


Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes

It Really Is Different This Time

Erik Weisman [MFS]17.12.2015, 09:27

Now that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, investors want to know how this rate-hiking cycle might proceed and, more important, how markets will...


RMB Index

China has sent the Yellen Fed another strong message

John J. Hardy [Saxo Bank]15.12.2015, 16:17

On Friday, China’s central bank, the PBOC, posted a brief note on its website to indicate that it would publish a new and broad measure of the renminbi exchange rate, which it dubbed the "RMB...


Thoughts on Ethically Sound Risk Management

The Philosophy of Risk

Prof. Dr. Julian Nida-Rümelin20.11.2015, 08:30

Risk is not something that concerns only mathematicians and financiers – it is also of interest to philosophers. Whenever we start to think about things such as threats, hazards, damage, harm or...


Wall Street’s Sexiest Models

On Financial Models and Game Theory

Volker Bieta13.11.2015, 08:00

In the wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, many have voiced doubts as to whether financial models are fit for purpose. At the time the crisis struck, in the autumn of 2007, many market...


Market and risk analysis

Stimulus and rate cuts a much needed lifeline for commodities

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]27.10.2015, 13:19

Commodities were back on the defensive for a second week running with China growth worries, a stronger dollar and high inventories of key commodities such as oil and aluminum continuing to drag on...


The costs and benefits of lifting sanctions against Iran

A drowning man is not troubled by rain

Steen Jakobsen [Saxo Bank]03.09.2015, 18:07

The Iranian proverb "A drowning man is not troubled by rain" captures why Iran and the US were and are almost desperate to strike a deal to lift Iranian sanctions.

For Iran, the harsh...


Market and risk analysis

Commodities quake as China rocks the world

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]19.08.2015, 10:59

China's decision to devalue its currency (CNY) helped send several commodities down to new multi-year lows this week. Being the biggest importer of many key commodities, including oil and industrial...


China's devaluation of the yuan

A True Paradigm Shift

Steen Jakobsen [Saxo Bank]14.08.2015, 12:47

A value at risk (VaR) explosion will drive a risk-off scenario. Less transparency, lower growth, a risk of deflation, and lack of understanding add up to less positioning and the risk of breaking...

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