Comment

Market and Risk Analysis

Rumor & Denial: Verbal oil intervention in action

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]01.02.2016, 15:19

January proved to be a very volatile month for commodities and the final week was no exception, with the oil market continuing to attract most of the attention. Speculation of a so far unconfirmed...

Comment

In an Uncertain World, We Need Both Brains and Guts

The Art of Good Decision Making

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Gaissmaier20.01.2016, 09:39

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes," wrote the US statesman Benjamin Franklin in 1789, on the eve of the French Revolution. And his words are still...

Study

Redefining business success in a changing world

CEO's concerns about geopolitics

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]20.01.2016, 08:42

Two-thirds of CEOs (66%) see more threats facing their businesses today than three years ago.  Just over a quarter (27%) believe global growth will improve over the next 12 months, a decline of...

Comment

Risk Analysis

From bad to worse as Iran crushes crude

Ole Hansen [Saxo Bank]18.01.2016, 15:38

The energy sector suffered its worst weekly setback since June 2011 as the imminent return of Iranian crude and milder weather in the US sent oil and natural gas sharply lower. These developments,...

Study

Global Risk Map 2016

Geo-political instability causing disruption

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]18.01.2016, 08:45

The risk landscape for businesses is substantially changing in 2016. While businesses are less concerned about the impact of traditional industrial risks such as natural catastrophes or fire, they...

Comment

Benefits and Risks of the New Insurance Regulation

Solvency II at the Gates

Prof. Dr. Helmut Gründl15.01.2016, 09:15

Investors and insurance policyholders are often confronted with complex products and providers’ opaque organisational structures. At the same time, the possibility that their claims will not be...

Study

Macroeconomic forecast

The recovery continues amid risks

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]13.01.2016, 09:17

The recovery in the Eurozone is expected to continue at a moderate pace. Real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 1.5% in 2015, and by 0.4% in comparison to the previous quarters in...

Study

Zero interest rates and regulation create new risks

New risk models required

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]12.01.2016, 18:38

The combination of zero interest rates and more stringent regulatory requirements is creating additional risks for investors and the financial system as a whole. Asset managers must react to these...

Study

Business interruption on the rise

Modern supply chains vulnerable to disruption

RiskNET [Editor-in-chief]21.12.2015, 21:07

Collapsed buildings, damaged factories or destroyed shipping containers: Whenever natural catastrophes or man-made disasters strike the physical damage is often devastating for companies. However,...

Comment

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes

It Really Is Different This Time

Erik Weisman [MFS]17.12.2015, 09:27

Now that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, investors want to know how this rate-hiking cycle might proceed and, more important, how markets will...

Comment

Statistics, Psychology and the Risk Paradox

Are We Afraid of the Wrong Things?

Prof. Dr. Ortwin Renn [Universität Stuttgart]15.12.2015, 16:26

New technologies, sophisticated mathematical models and increasingly comprehensive statistical surveys have brought – and continue to bring – huge advances in our understanding of risk management....

Comment

RMB Index

China has sent the Yellen Fed another strong message

John J. Hardy [Saxo Bank]15.12.2015, 16:17

On Friday, China’s central bank, the PBOC, posted a brief note on its website to indicate that it would publish a new and broad measure of the renminbi exchange rate, which it dubbed the "RMB...

Comment

The Notion of the Risk ­Society in the Public Discourse

The Appeal of Disasters

Prof. Dr. Klaus P. Japp30.11.2015, 14:48

Even deciding to get married can have serious consequences. But clinging to the idea of large-scale risks – by, for example, positing the notion of a 'risk society' – obscures many of the everyday...

Comment

Thoughts on Ethically Sound Risk Management

The Philosophy of Risk

Prof. Dr. Julian Nida-Rümelin20.11.2015, 08:30

Risk is not something that concerns only mathematicians and financiers – it is also of interest to philosophers. Whenever we start to think about things such as threats, hazards, damage, harm or...

Comment

Wall Street’s Sexiest Models

On Financial Models and Game Theory

Volker Bieta13.11.2015, 08:00

In the wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, many have voiced doubts as to whether financial models are fit for purpose. At the time the crisis struck, in the autumn of 2007, many market...

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